Ohio State +5 3.3% play
This is Urban Meyer's first time as a home dog since he was a home dog in 2003 at Utah. Ohio State is 14-2 ATS their last 16 as a dog, and 6-0 SU/ATS under Meyer, and it makes a lot of sense, because they have more talent than most teams, and when it gets to the point that they are dogs, they tend to play their best. I think it's kind of crazy that they are more than a FG dog at home in this spot, but they haven't looked good the last two weeks, but still everything that they set out to do this season is in front of them. Urban Meyers has a top flight offense with a QB, that should give Michigan's secondary troubles.
Ohio State's defense has been the issue, but I think they can rebound here against a Michigan offense that is very easy to prepare for and I think Ohio State's issues have mostly been giving up explosive plays. Michigan's offense 77th in explosive plays, Ohio State's defense 122nd in explosive defense. Michigan may get a few big plays, but overall I think Ohio State can hang in this game on that side of the ball. At home they are allowing nearly 2 yards per carry less against the run, and that's what Michigan relies on the most.
The only thing that worries me in this game is the health of Urban Meyer. Is he 100%, obviously not, and rumors are all over that he will be retiring after this year, but I am going to say he does not retire. He's the better coach here, Jim Harbough has not proven anything this year, and all of the pressure is on Michigan. They have not won a big game under Harbough, and now they have to do it as a favorite, and on the road. I just don't see it. Buckeyes may win this one outright.
